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Cotton Technical Analysis - Cotton Trading: 2022-02-15
Cotton Technical Analysis Summary
Below 119
Sell Stop
Above 127
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Sell |
| MACD | Sell |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Cotton Chart Analysis
Cotton Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COTTON: D1 has broken down the uptrend support line. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further decline. We do not rule out a bearish movement if COTTON falls below its most recent low of 119. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit may be above the last two upper fractals, the high since July 2011 and the Parabolic signal: 127. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal high. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders after making a trade can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (127) without activating the order (119), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Cotton
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported an increase in the US cotton harvest. Will the COTTON quotes continue to decline?
According to the USDA, as of February 1, 2022, 16.57 million bales of ginned cotton (running bales ginned) were harvested in the United States. This is 19% more than on the same date in 2021. An additional negative for cotton could be USDA's weekly data on US Export Sales. Over the past week, they amounted to 185.2 thousand bales (running bales). This is 45% less than a week earlier and a third less than the same week last year. Note that according to the National Cotton Council's 41st Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, US growers are going to plant 12 million acres of cotton in the spring of 2022. This is 7.3% more than in 2021. Over the past 2 years, cotton has risen in price by almost 80%, which encourages farmers to increase its production.
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